Tension Rises in Caucasia 2.

Tension Rises in Caucasia 2. The Zangezur corridor is a proposed transport route that would connect Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan through the territory of Armenia. It has been a source of tension and controversy in the Caucasus region, where Azerbaijan and Armenia have a long history of conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The corridor would have significant implications for the economic and geopolitical dynamics of the Caucasus, as well as for the interests of other countries that are involved or affected by the situation. This article will analyze the background, benefits, challenges, and prospects of the Zangezur corridor, as well as the role of regional and international actors in its development.

Tension Rises in Caucasia 2. The geopolitical significance of the Zangezur Corridor is currently being debated.
As part of its wider Middle East redesign, the United States is taking an interest in developments in the Caucasus. The geopolitical significance of the Zangezur Corridor is currently being debated. Their primary concern is in countering China’s One Belt One Road initiative, as well as preventing any power increases in Turkey. However, the opening of the Zangezur Corridor does not align with American interests. Despite being in the EU’s interest, unfortunately, the EU cannot pursue its interests.

At this rate, Nikol Pashinyan may become the new Zelenski and Armenia the new Ukraine.
Notably, India seeks to penetrate the Caucasus region through Armenia.
For the purpose of creating conflict between India and China, the US has established a new economic trade corridor scheme that encompasses Europe, the Middle East, and India. Turkey, Egypt, and Iran are notably excluded from this initiative. The primary objective is to counterbalance China and India’s power. Tension Rises in Caucasia 2.

Geopolitical strategies dictate the framework of this economic corridor.

Tension Rises in Caucasia 2. Returning from the G20 summit, Erdogan stated that a successful trade corridor cannot be established without Turkey. Additionally, he mentioned that China is supportive of the One Road One Belt initiative and that Turkey is actively contributing to the project. Furthermore, countries in the Middle East and Central Asia are also working collaboratively towards this initiative. In contrast, the trade project backed by the US in India is anticipated to be unsuccessful. Previously, there were plans to route the EU gas line through Israel, Greek Cypriot Cyprus, and Greece.

However, after dedicating two years to the issue, it ultimately failed. Currently, Israel is engaging in discussions with Turkey. Should the gas line from Israel proceed through Turkey to the EU, it is expected that this project will succeed, and Israel is aware of this possibility. Ideologically and geopolitically, the US is embroiled in a conflict with China. Additionally, the rapid growth of BRICS is a significant cause for concern for the US. Tension Rises in Caucasia 2.

BRICS is developing a new shared currency that threatens to weaken the US dollar’s status as the dominant reserve currency. The US is aware that India’s trade project is likely to fail. However, the project serves as a means to divert attention from the neighboring countries in the region. The most important thing was to make China and India fight against each other.

Tension Rises in Caucasia 2. Nicol Pashinyan opposed Russia and delivered speeches supporting the West.
There may be an attempt to rebrand Nicol Pashinyan as a second Zelenski and transform Armenia into another Ukraine. Zengezur and Azerbaijan are pivotal for China’s One Belt One Road initiative.

The new balance of Politics in Europe. Nicol Pashinyan Under Pressure. However, under increasing pressure, he changed his stance. Initially, Nicol Pashinyan did not oppose the opening of the Zangezur corridor three years ago.
Armenia is cooperating with the USA and France against Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. It is important to note that Armenia does not share borders with the USA or France. President Macron has stated that France will intervene in the Caucasus if Azerbaijan interferes in Armenia.

It is not feasible for France to intervene in the Caucasus due to a lack of supportive infrastructure. The Armenian lobby in America has urged Pashinyan’s bodyguards to prioritize their prospects over their immediate pay. There is a high likelihood that Nicol Pashinyan may be assassinated. Armenia is currently in a state of turmoil.
Nikol Pashinyan may be the second Zelensky.

The new balance of Politics in Europe. Nicol Pashinyan has announced his acceptance of the Rome Treaty regarding Russia, indicating that Armenia will now adhere to the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. This means that if Putin visits Armenia, he could potentially be apprehended. Armenia’s move can be seen as a challenge to Russia, which is likely why Russia refrained from interfering in Azerbaijan’s counter-terrorism operation in Karabakh.

Protests have been ongoing in Yerevan for the past week. The populace of Armenia expected Pashinyan to mobilize and attack Azerbaijan, but he refrained from initiating a war due to the anticipated negative repercussions for Armenia. In the international arena, power plays a significant role. Azerbaijan has expressed its intention to establish the Zangezur corridor. A failed coup attempt took place against Pashinyan four days ago, leading to the arrest of eight individuals.

Iran’s Policy towards the Caucasus.

Tension Rises in Caucasia 2. There are two powers in Iran; one is the Iranian army whilst the other is the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The United States recently returned 5 billion dollars to Iran via Qatar in exchange for the release of five U.S. citizens. It is believed that Iran has come to an agreement with the US regarding Armenia, as both nations share a common goal of opposing the Zangezur Corridor.

Iran’s dependence on Russia and China is evident as it has entered into major contracts with China. Iran will not engage in cooperation with the United States on this occasion. Should Iran choose to cooperate with the United States, Russia, China, and Turkey would withdraw their support and significantly impact Iran’s prospects. China, Russia, and Turkey have significantly contributed to Iran’s regional resilience thus far.

Iran has stated its intention to intervene in Azerbaijan, but its capacity to do so is limited. While it may conduct a few military exercises, it is incapable of carrying out any further actions. You can refer to my earlier Kafkaz article where I elaborated on the outcomes of Iran’s intervention in Azerbaijan in detail. Azerbaijan will face UN and international condemnations, but the impact will be insignificant. Tension Rises in Caucasia 2.

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia persist.

The European Union has released statements criticizing Azerbaijan, despite its reliance on Azerbaijan for oil and gas. The EU may lack strategic foresight and the ability to safeguard its interests as various lobbies within the EU make decisions on its behalf. If France could pursue its interests with Azerbaijan more effectively, the trade relationship between the two nations could prove more profitable for France. The US objective in the region is to obstruct China’s One Belt One Road project’s Caucasus route.

The new balance of Politics in Europe. However, the EU is facing difficulty in prioritizing its interests and deciding on a stance. Recently, the German foreign minister referred to the Chinese president as a dictator. This kind of discourse is not in the interests of the EU, especially Germany. It is worth noting that the EU has a substantial amount of trade with China.

Tension Rises in Caucasia 2. The UN recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and says Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan. No country in the Caucasus region can make a move against Azerbaijan. It should be taken into consideration that Azerbaijan is a strong country in the Caucasus. The USA will not come and fight Azerbaijan for Armenia, Iran cannot intervene in Azerbaijan, Russia will remain silent in this situation because it considers its interests with Turkey, the EU is already dealing with multiple internal crises, and no one can block Azerbaijan. Israel, Turkey, and Pakistan support Azerbaijan in every way. China does not interfere in this situation but supports the Zangezur corridor in the background, this corridor is important for China.

Tension Rises in Caucasia 2. Armenia is aware that the establishment of good relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan is crucial for its long-term survival in the region. If Armenia enters into peace talks with Azerbaijan, it could positively impact the entire Caucasus, particularly Armenia. By closing its borders with both Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia is self-depriving of regional and international trade and has no financial gain.

Nikol Pashinyan is currently under immense pressure.

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan demands a sum of 60 billion dollars in compensation to be given by Armenia. The basis for this demand is Armenia’s occupation of Karabakh over the last three decades, appropriation of Karabakh’s above and underground resources, and the damage caused to the area.

The Azerbaijani government announced that if Armenia failed to pay compensation of 60 billion dollars, it should cede land in exchange. Azerbaijan demanded the Zangezur and Goyce regions be handed over to them.

Tension Rises in Caucasia 2. Armenia can solve this issue by signing a peace and cooperation agreement with Azerbaijan. Earlier, Nicol Pashinyan announced that he would sign this agreement. Opening the Zangezur corridor will boost Armenia’s economy and the route of the middle corridor of China’s Belt and Road project will pass through here. The Zangezur corridor in the Caucasus concerns the entire Middle East. Many Middle Eastern countries are working together largely under this project. Several countries are investing in this project.

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International Relations, Threat, and Geopolitics Analyst: Kanan Heydarov
Date: 28.09.2023
Subject: Tension Rises in Caucasia 2.