Rising tension in the Caucasus.

Rising tension in the Caucasus. This article provides information on developments between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Caucasus and the causes of tension.
The Caucasus is a region in Eurasia that lies between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. It is home to many different ethnic groups, languages, and cultures. Azerbaijan and Armenia are two neighboring countries in the Caucasus with a long history of conflict and rivalry. The main source of tension has been Armenia’s occupation of Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

What is happening in the Caucasus?

Azerbaijan’s Karabakh victory.

Azerbaijan achieved victory in Karabakh three years ago when it launched a counter-offensive operation. President Ilham Aliyev described it as an Iron Fist retaliation after Armenian forces attacked Azerbaijani civilian settlements. This operation evolved into a homeland war, and within 44 days, the Azerbaijani army liberated its lands from the 30-year Armenian occupation. Rising tension in the Caucasus.

Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region.

During the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan, leading to an attack and occupation of Karabakh and 7 surrounding provinces in the early 1990s. This resulted in the brutal killing of thousands of civilians, and the displacement of over one million Azerbaijanis from their homes.
Despite United Nations Security Council resolutions demanding Armenia’s immediate and unconditional withdrawal from the occupied Azerbaijani lands, they were not implemented. Rising tension in the Caucasus.

It is widely accepted by all UN member countries that Karabakh rightfully belongs to Azerbaijan.
To implement UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions 822 (dated 30 April 1993), 853 (dated 27 July 1993), 874 (dated 14 October 1993), and 884 (dated 11 November 1993), which stipulate the termination of Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijan’s territory launched a counter-attack within the framework of its right of self-defense to ensure territorial integrity. Rising tension in the Caucasus.

Azerbaijan’s struggle for a homeland.

Azerbaijan’s attempt to recover its territory was met with a negotiation process spanning several years. Despite the 28-year efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, the USA, and France, no results were achieved. The Armenian forces and the Yerevan administration have increased their harassment and attacks. This followed provocative statements.
Nikol Pashinyan, who became the leader in 2018, upheld the previous administration’s approach towards the occupation, and his assertion that Karabakh was a part of Armenia stopped negotiations under the OSCE Minsk Group’s framework.

Rising tension in the Caucasus. Despite the Azerbaijani President’s public support for a peaceful resolution, he consistently maintained that they retained the right to recapture the lands through military action if negotiations failed. When negotiations proved unfruitful, Azerbaijan turned to the exercise of its rights under international law.
The Second Karabakh War, known as the Homeland War in Azerbaijan, lasted for 44 days and came to a close on November 10, 2020, with Armenia signing a declaration acknowledging its defeat.

The struggle between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Tensions are rising again regarding Karabakh and Zangezur.

There is currently tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia, stemming from the Zangezur Corridor and the presence of illegal Armenian militants in Karabakh. Armenia’s failure to implement the agreements outlined in the tripartite declaration accepting their defeat on November 10, 2020, is further escalating the situation.
Armenia continues to amass soldiers and military vehicles at the border with Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijan is also deploying soldiers along their shared border. In particular, Azerbaijan is deploying more soldiers on the Armenian border with Nakhchivan.

Rising tension in the Caucasus. The reason for this is the Zengezur corridor.
The President of Azerbaijan said that the Zangezur corridor would be opened by 2024.
The USA is now conducting military exercises with Armenia.
Iran warned Azerbaijan and said, “If you intervene in Armenia, we will respond.” The European Union sent observers to the region. Armenia started to take a stand against Russia and began to accuse Russia. Armenians in Karabakh also showed some acts of violence against Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh.

Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan admitted to having misplaced his trust in Russia, which had been providing 99.9% of Armenia’s security. Pashinyan further claimed that Russia did not assist Armenia during the Karabakh war. In reply, Putin stated that Karabakh falls under Azerbaijan’s jurisdiction and has been recognized as such by the UN. Putin added that the war does not take place on Armenian territory.
There is a region called Khankendi in the Karabakh area of Azerbaijan. Illegal Armenian militants are present in that region. Putin recently made a statement affirming that Nicol Pashinya recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

Rising tension in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan did not object to opening the Lachin corridor and sending aid trucks to the Armenians in Khankendi. But a few months later, he noticed that weapons and military equipment were being carried in the aid trucks going to Khankendi, and then Azerbaijan closed the Lachin corridor for the trucks and opened the Lachin border control gate there. At the same time, it should be taken into consideration that Armenia has not opened the Zangezur corridor.

Karabakh Armenians can easily communicate with Armenia by passing through the Lachin border gate in Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan proposed to Armenia that aid trucks could reach Khankendi by using an alternative road passing through the Agdan region. This offer would allow Azerbaijan to monitor the exit of any aid trucks and guarantee its security. This falls within Azerbaijan’s legal obligation to oversee all activities occurring within its territory.

Armenians make propaganda and say that Azerbaijan has surrounded their city, but in reality, the roads are open. The main purpose of Armenians behaving like this is to prolong the Karabakh conflict as long as possible and prevent a peace agreement.

Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan stated that he would sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan even if they accused him of being a traitor. However, Pashinyan is unable to make this agreement due to both international and domestic pressures. There are some factions that desire the continuation of instability in the region. Nicol Pashinya is disturbed by the armed Armenian militants in Karabakh, especially since these militants are supported by foreign powers.

Rising tension in the Caucasus. Armenians in Karabakh held illegal elections 4 days ago, and the USA, EU countries, Russia, and Armenia itself announced that they did not recognize these elections. Armed Armenian militants in Karabakh continue to increase tensions in the region. Azerbaijan is determined to clear out illegal armed Armenian militants from its territory, Karabakh. The only obstacle to a possible peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the illegal Armenian militants supported by foreign forces in Karabakh.

Iran-Azerbaijan tension in the Caucasus.

Iran threatened Azerbaijan. Iran’s threat to Azerbaijan involves Iran’s desire for the Zangezur corridor to remain closed.

Iran has stated that if Azerbaijan were to intervene in Armenia, it would retaliate against Azerbaijan. However, it is important to note that Iran would struggle to follow through on this threat, as doing so could result in internal strife. Forty million Turkish people reside within Iran’s borders, and occasionally these individuals express dissatisfaction by opposing the Iranian government. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

Mossad Iran operation.

In particular, Southern Azerbaijan is a region located within Iran’s borders and home to 25 million Azerbaijani Turks. These lands hold historical significance for Azerbaijan. In the event of an attack by Iran on Azerbaijan, it is likely to cause internal division within Iran. Iran’s government is also well aware of this. In addition, Iran’s military technology is outdated and cannot be compared to the technology available today.

South Azerbaijan.

A few months ago, Israel carried out a military air operation against Iran and bombed military bases, military production factories, and warehouses in 11 Iranian cities. So far, Mossad has carried out many operations in Iran and these are not secrets. Mossad agents took the documents regarding the secret nuclear facilities a few kilometers away from Tehran, the capital city of Iran, and gave them to Benjamin Netanyahu. Benjamin Netanyahu shared these documents with Trump. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

Over the last few months, the Mossad has carried out operations in Iraq and central Tehran, which led to the elimination of several high-ranking Iranian generals. This raises questions about Iran’s ability to ensure its security, including border security, and how it would fare in a conflict with Azerbaijan. Additionally, Israel frequently carries out bombing raids on Iran’s military facilities in Syria each week. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

Azerbaijan primarily relies on Israel and Turkey for its military technology and weaponry. In contrast, Iran’s military technology falls significantly behind that of Israel and Turkey. Israeli technology is comparable in quality to that of the US, while Turkey’s technology matches that of Western countries and NATO. In contrast, Iran’s military technology falls significantly behind that of Israel and Turkey. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

The most recent clash between Afghanistan and Iran’s military occurred a few weeks ago, during which the Taliban captured Iranian soldiers and seized a number of their military outposts as well as territory, albeit for a brief period.
Do not listen to the threatening words of Iran, Iran is a paper tiger.
Iran cannot wage war against Azerbaijan, it cannot wage war against Turks. If Iran wages war against the Turks, this war will disintegrate Iran. Iran cannot afford a conflict with Turkey. Rising tension in the Caucasus.

Iran has nothing to do with the Caucasus. If Iran declares war against Azerbaijan, it means that Iran will have to fight with 40 million Turks living in Iran, which will have disastrous consequences.
Even during the 44-day Karabakh war, Iran was sending weapons to Armenia by lorries, and these lorries carrying weapons were destroyed by the Turks living in Iran before reaching Armenia.

The number of states that want the disintegration of Iran is not small, and Iran is aware of this. Israel, the USA, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia see the disintegration of Iran in the interests of these states. Iran is aware of this situation and will refrain from military intervention in the Caucasus. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

Rising tension in the Caucasus.
If Armenia does not open the Zangezur corridor, the Azerbaijani army will intervene. No country is likely to intervene in the conflict. Russia is expected to remain silent on the matter due to its agenda, while the USA is preoccupied with managing issues with China in the Asia Pacific. Consequently, it is unlikely to take any action against Azerbaijan. The EU is also dealing with its challenges related to Russia in Ukraine. In essence, it appears that each country is primarily focused on its problems.

The United Nations delivers occasional speeches opposing Azerbaijan, though their significance is negligible. Provided Pashinyan remains steadfast against both domestic and foreign influences, whilst facilitating the opening of the Zangezur corridor, Armenia stands to gain economic advantages and avoid the possibility of conflict. If Pashinyan fails to open the Zangezur corridor, the Azerbaijani army will operate a military intervention to open the corridor. The military operation is expected to last for one to two weeks, followed by a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Rising tension in the Caucasus.

Rising tension in the Caucasus. Turkish President Erdogan suggested to Putin that they arrange a quadripartite meeting to discuss the conflict over Karabakh. It is possible that a meeting could take place between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia to discuss this matter.

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International Relations, Threat, and Geopolitics Analyst: Kanan Heydarov
Subject: Rising tension in the Caucasus.
Data: 17.09.2023