A period of confusion and tension.

A period of confusion and tension. In this article, we will discuss the recent developments in the Middle East and their implications for the global order. We will analyze Iran’s aggressive behavior in the last week and its rocket attacks on Iraq and Pakistan, which have escalated regional tensions and provoked international condemnation. We will also examine the US elections, and Trump’s Supreme Court, and how they affect the prospects of diplomacy and stability in the region. Finally, we will look at the tense period in Europe and the DAVOS meeting, where world leaders will try to address the challenges of climate change, economic recovery, and human rights. A period of confusion and tension.

What is happening in the Middle East?

Last week, the US and UK conducted an air campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, bombing several Houthi positions. Yesterday morning, a US freighter sailing in the Red Sea was hit by a rocket fired from Yemen by the Houthis. The bombing by the US in Yemen did not yield any results and even exacerbated the situation.

Many transport companies have announced that their cargo ships will not pass through Bab al Mandeb due to the risk posed by the Houthis. Numerous transport company ships have begun passing through the Umit Cape strait in Africa, resulting in a 10-day delay in world trade. Additionally, trade in the Red Sea has come to a standstill following the US bombing of Yemen. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

According to the Houthis, they will continue to hit Israeli and US merchant ships passing through the Red Sea as long as the war in Gaza continues.
The Hamas attack on Israel triggered many events, including the Red Sea crisis.
The US has deployed 1500 troops to Iraq and Syria.

A period of confusion and tension. The United States is currently considering solutions to the Middle East problem. Its reduced influence in the region has made this task more challenging. The intelligence war in the area is intense, and global powers operate differently from state powers. Turkey’s military operation in Syria has brought the US and Turkey into conflict in the region.

On 13 December, the US renamed the region as the Democratic Autonomy Region of Northern and Eastern Syria, similar to the North of Iraq. Turkey opposes this move and it conflicts with US interests. As a result, the US deployed an additional 1500 troops to the region. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

Iran launched a rocket attack on the US military base in Iraq ten days ago.

The following day, Iran launched a rocket attack on areas controlled by the Baluchistan liberation militia in Pakistan.

Iran carried out a rocket attack on the Erbil region of Iraq.
According to a statement by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the target was a group engaged in espionage and terrorist activities against Iran. The targeted house in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, belonged to a Kurdish businessman. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

The individual in question was a close associate of Masoud Barzani. Masoud Barzani responded strongly to this situation. The individual in question runs a company called Falcon, which serves as Barzani’s bodyguard. Pakistan responded by deploying troops and military equipment on its border with Iran.

The armies of Iran and Pakistan are standing ready for war on the border. The Balochistan Liberation Army, a Pakistani militia, attacked Iran resulting in the death of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard colonel. Iran has launched rocket attacks on three regions in the past two days. The new balance of Politics in the Middle East

It is thought that the reason why Iran has become so aggressive is because of the disagreement between the revolutionary guards inside Iran and the Iranian government.

US Trump agenda.

A period of confusion and tension. The US state of Iowa held its primary election, which was won by Trump with a high number of points. The Republicans will hold elections in several US states in the first week of March, and Trump is expected to win. In January, the election will take place in New Hampshire, followed by South Carolina in February. Additionally, Trump will face a trial in the US Supreme Court in February, which will determine his eligibility to run for president. If the US Supreme Court does not oppose Trump’s candidacy, then Trump is likely to win the election.

If Donald Trump is re-elected as President of the USA, he will focus on improving the country’s infrastructure and rebuilding it. It is unlikely that his re-election would lead to a third world war. Instead of engaging in military conflict with China, he may initiate a trade war. He aims to improve relations with Russia and has already met with North Korea once, with the possibility of another meeting if he is re-elected. A period of confusion and tension.

A period of confusion and tension. A strategy could be developed by Trump to reduce or resolve the growing conflicts and tensions in the world. Trump has previously met with North Korea resulting in a significant reduction, if not an end, of tensions. Similar meetings with Russia could also be considered.
In the recent Taiwan elections, a pro-independence party emerged victorious. Although the US claims to support and recognize the one-China policy, it continues to provide military support to Taiwan in its conflict with China. It remains uncertain what Trump’s policy toward Taiwan will be.

The EU is caught in a dilemma.

When considering Europe, the situation appears complex due to increasing migration from the Middle East, Africa, and Ukraine to the EU.
In a speech at DAVOS, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the Ukrainian people desire to join Europe. This is due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has forced many to leave their homes.
Western governments are trying to convince public opinion that they are weakening Russia’s economic, military, and diplomatic influence. However, this is not entirely true. Russia’s economy is still alive and Russia has signed many trade agreements from Asia to Africa.

The world always needs valuable underground and above-ground resources and Russia trades in them and there are always buyers.
With the beginning of the Ukrainian war, it was foreseen that an economic crisis would start in Russia and that Putin would be overthrown by a popular uprising and Russia would be defeated, but this did not happen, the long-term spread of the war deepened the economic crisis in Europe.

A period of confusion and tension. This has been the basis for the rise of the right-wing parties and the people, whose quality of life and purchasing power have decreased, think that right-wing parties will be the way out. The attitude of the right-wing parties towards Ukraine is well known.
When we look at Ukraine, Ukraine is in ruins and has no major victories against Russia and we see internal unrest, corruption, and power struggles within Ukraine.

The EU and the USA follow a progressive process. Therefore, Ukraine may not receive sufficient aid. Many countries are currently focused on their internal affairs. In particular, tensions in the Asia Pacific and turmoil in the Middle East have diverted the attention of the US. The West is currently working on a peace treaty with Russia. Additionally, there are upcoming elections in both America and Europe. In the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, the possibility of a shift towards right-wing politics looms. This could mark the start of a new era for the EU.

British defense minister Grant Shapps has predicted a global conflict between the West and Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea within five years. Shapps has called on Britain’s allies to increase their military spending in response to this so-called “existential threat.”
The outcome of the US elections is seen as a determining factor for the likelihood of such a war. If Trump wins the US elections, the likelihood of such a war is perceived to be very low.

A report is being prepared in Davos suggesting that neutral countries establish a naval task force to escort Ukraine’s grain and fertilizer ships. Russia responded by stating that Davos is no different from the fishing association and should not be taken seriously. A period of confusion and tension.

Russia has reminded the Convention on the Straits of Montreux regarding the proposed initiative. Countries not bordering the Black Sea cannot take part in such projects. Especially in a project that Turkey does not exist and does not support.

Additional information.

The Jeffrey Epstein case, which shook the US, will last a little longer and we will see different events and decipherments emerge. A period of confusion and tension.

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International Relations, Threat, and Geopolitics Analyst: Kanan Heydarov
Subject: A period of confusion and tension.
Data 19.01.2024